PARIS — The global power landscape is reaching a definitive “turning point” as the age of coal dominance begins to fade. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025 and subsequent Renewables 2025 analysis, renewable energy sources are set to overtake coal as the world’s largest source of electricity generation by mid-2026 at the latest.

A Century-Old Record Set to Fall

For the last 100 years, coal has been the backbone of global industrialization. However, the IEA projects that coal’s share of total generation will drop below 33% for the first time in a century by 2026. This decline is not due to a lack of energy demand—which is actually surging by 3.7% annually due to data centers, electric vehicles, and extreme cooling needs—but rather the sheer velocity of solar and wind deployment.

“Renewables will surpass coal at the end of 2025 (or by mid-2026 at the latest, depending on hydropower availability) to become the largest source of electricity generation globally. Solar PV alone accounts for over half of this increase.”

— International Energy Agency (IEA), Renewables 2025 Analysis

The Engine of Change: Solar PV

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the primary driver of this transition, expected to provide roughly 80% of all new renewable capacity through 2026. While wind energy remains a vital secondary pillar, solar’s modularity and plummeting costs have made it the “default” choice for new power builds. Combined, wind and solar are expected to jump from a 15% share of the global mix in 2024 to nearly 20% by 2026.

Regional Divergence and Resilience

While the global trend is clear, the path is not uniform. The IEA notes that the shift is most aggressive in China and the European Union, where coal-fired generation is entering a structural decline. Conversely, in the United States and India, coal consumption has shown temporary resilience due to high natural gas prices and rapid demand spikes.

The exact timing of the “surpass” depends largely on weather; a strong year for hydropower could push renewables past coal as early as late 2025, while a drought might delay the milestone until the second quarter of 2026.

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Key Forecast Statistics (2025–2026)

• Emissions Plateau: Global power sector $CO_{2}$ emissions are expected to peak in 2025 and begin a slight decline in 2026.
• Solar Growth: Forecasted to rise by 27% in 2026 alone.
• Nuclear Milestone: Nuclear energy is also projected to reach a record high in 2025 as reactors in Japan restart and new units in China and India come online.

IEA Executive Summary: Renewables to Overtake Coal This video provides a concise overview of the IEA and Ember reports detailing the historic first-half 2025 milestone where renewables initially surged past coal generation.